Malcolm Turnbull looks to keep the prize seat of Wentworth in the family, The New Daily, 27 February, 2017.

http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/02/27/malcom-turnbull-successor-james-brown/

Malcolm Turnbull looks to keep the prize seat of Wentworth in the family


Malcolm Turnbull's political future is becoming increasingly untenable, but he has a successor in mind. Photo: AAP
John Stapleton
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With the latest dismal Newspoll, Malcolm Turnbull is now facing almost certain political death at the hands of either his own party or those of the electorate.

The question has now become not just who will take over the Liberal leadership, but who will take Mr Turnbull’s prized seat of Wentworth.

The PM’s son-in-law James Brown, a former army officer who has served in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Solomon Islands, is reportedly being groomed for preselection.

And the question is now one of when, not if, the seat of Wentworth becomes vacant.

Wentworth is the most glittering prize the Liberal Party has to offer. If Mr Brown inherits the seat, it will ensure that the inner-eastern Sydney seat remains within the orbit of the Turnbull family.

Wentworth is the wealthiest electorate in Australia, encompassing the elite suburbs of Vaucluse, Watsons Bay, Woollahra, Bellevue Hill and the Prime Minister’s own home turf of Point Piper. It has never been held by the ALP.
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While his critics see Mr Brown as ambitious, ruthless and out of touch with ordinary Australians – characteristics they also attribute to Mr Turnbull – others see a different man.

Moves by Mr Brown to cement his position for a tilt at Wentworth include taking the presidency of the Paddington branch of the Liberal Party in 2015. He rolled the sitting president, Peter Cavanagh, who told The New Daily he was aware of rumours Mr Brown is aiming to take the seat.

Although there was bad blood at the time, Mr Cavanagh insists there is now no ill will. “He is very competent,” he said. “I wish him well.”

Other manoeuvres by Mr Brown to boost his public image have included penning the book Anzac’s Long Shadow: The Cost of Our National Obsession and the more recent Quarterly Essay, Firing Line: Australia’s Path to War.

Both works place him on the opposite side of the Liberal Party to Tony Abbott, whose military interventions he has dismissed as a “chaotic” failure to understand Australia’s military.

Still other moves shoring up Mr Brown’s credibility for preselection including positioning himself to become the head of the NSW state branch of the RSL, which has been riven with scandal and accusations of financial mismanagement.

He paints himself as a clean skin who wishes to restore the RSL as “a force for good for veterans”.James Brown (L) is married to Malcolm Turnbull’s daughter Daisy. Photo: Facebook

Dr Norman Abjorensen, a leading political commentator whose many books include Australia: The State of Democracy, told The New Daily that, save for a miracle, Mr Turnbull was doomed. It was natural for him to be looking at his legacy and his successor.

“Turnbull is a very typical Wentworth product,” Dr Abjorensen said.

“It [Wentworth] is very strongly liberal, intellectual, Jewish. It has the highest concentration of gay people in the country. There is not much ground for social conservatism.”Mr Turnbull would prefer a successor like himself for the seat of Wentworth. Photo: Getty

Dr Abjorensen said a socially liberal, highly educated local candidate was needed to represent the seat.

“James Brown ticks all the boxes. And he has the added asset of being able to take on the Right by being a former military officer. He has crossover appeal,” he said.

“Malcolm Turnbull would prefer a successor like himself. He would want to keep a social liberal legacy going, not for his own sake, but for what he sees as the prevailing values in Wentworth he sought to represent.”

The New Daily’s repeated attempts to contact Mr Brown were not returned.

Benjamin Netanyahu looking to escape political heat in Israel, experts say, The New Daily, 22 February, 2017.

http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2017/02/22/benjamin-netanyahu-visits-australia/


Benjamin Netanyahu looking to escape political heat in Israel, experts say


Benjamin Netanyahu and Malcolm Turnbull say their countries have an enduring friendship. Photo: AAP
John Stapleton
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For all the backslapping over the enduring friendship between Israel and Australia, one thing has been overlooked: on the first visit of a sitting Israeli Prime Minister to Australia, Benjamin Netanyahu appears thoroughly delighted to be away from home.

Facing corruption allegations and having recently endured hours of humiliating interrogations by police amid talk his government is about to collapse, the warmth of his reception in Australia can only be a source of succour.

“We have so much in common, shared values, democracy, freedom, the rule of law,” Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull declared on Wednesday. “Two great democracies … each of us big-hearted, generous, committed to freedom.”

But while Mr Turnbull was telling Mr Netanyahu just how welcome he was, back in Israel the talk is of just how much longer the latter can last as Prime Minister. Last month, investigators from the national police anti-fraud unit twice questioned Mr Netanyahu at his Jerusalem residence. He and his family stand accused of accepting thousands of dollars in inappropriate gifts from wealthy businessmen.

Israeli newspapers have reported that Australian billionaire James Packerprovided Mariah Carey tickets, private plane trips and expensive hotel stays to Mr Netanyahu’s son Yair.
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On Wednesday, asked about the corruption allegations, Mr Netanyahu declared: “Obviously I am not going to comment on details, but I will say that I think nothing will come of it because there is nothing there, except friendship, which is a good thing.”

Mr Turnbull, when asked if he was concerned over one of Australia’s most successful businessmen, Mr Packer, being caught up in the investigations, said: “Likewise, I can’t comment and won’t comment on an investigation of that kind, and really have nothing further to add to what the Prime Minister has said.”

Experts on the relationship between Australia and Israel suggest the timing of the visit is at the very least convenient.

Middle East expert at the University of NSW, Dr Anthony Billingsley, told The New Daily: “Without being too cynical, he is looking for a lull from the politics at home.

“He is being investigated for corruption. He comes to Australia, gives a few speeches, everyone says positive things and he goes away relaxed and refreshed. I see reports from Israel he will not last out the year.”





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Political scientist Shahar Burla, co-editor of the book Australia and Israel: A Diasporic, Cultural and Political Relationship, told The New Daily there were activists in Israel trying to have Mr Netanyahu replaced.

“He has spent a lot of time overseas in the last couple of months. He spent 20 hours last month with police officers, grilling him about corruption,” he said. “His political situation is not good.”

Mr Burla said Mr Netanyahu could be charged over an alleged gift he of about $300,000 from one individual, which would likely mean the end of his government.

Dr Billingsley said Mr Turnbull’s enthusiastic reception for Mr Netanyahu and for the state of Israel was driven in part by an attempt to expose divisions on the Israel/Palestine issue within the Labor Party.Benjamin Netanyahu, pictured at a luncheon in Sydney, and Malcolm Turnbull signed agreements on technology and air services. and also discussed expanding co-operation in areas including cyber-security, innovation and science. Photo: AAP

Head of the Australia-Israel Chamber of Commerce Michelle Blum disagreed, saying talk of Mr Netanyahu fleeing Down Under to escape political turmoil was ridiculous. He brought with him a delegation comprising 20 companies.

“He would hardly travel 24 hours to the other side of the world if there was a political problem at home. He would stay and deal with it,” she told The New Daily.

“The visit, long overdue, is a reflection of the strong relationship that has existed between Australia and Israel across the political spectrum. The business relationship is growing.”

Why there might actually be method in Donald Trump's madness, The New Daily, 17 February, 2017.

http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2017/02/16/method-in-donald-trumps-madness/

NEWS WORLD

Why there might actually be method in Donald Trump’s madness


Donald Trump, seen here with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, is flipping international diplomacy on its head. Photo: Getty
John Stapleton
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There’s something to be said for a demolition expert.

Not content with reshaping America, US President Donald Trump is reshaping diplomacy throughout the world.

While the world’s diplomats are aflame with indignation over the seemingly ad hoc nature of Mr Trump’s foreign policy announcements, leading Australian policy experts suggest there could be a silver lining.

Mr Trump has called NATO obsolete, although it has been the bedrock of Western military alliance since World War II. He famously spoke on the phone to the Taiwanese President, throwing the One China policy up for grabs. He has been at clear odds with the Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who has declared those fleeing war and terror will always be welcome in Canada. He is moving ahead with the wall between the US and Mexico, has jousted with the German leader and turned the relationship with Russia on its head.

On Thursday (AEST), he threw decades of diplomatic effort up in the air when he declared of the Palestine-Israel two-state solution: “I’m looking at two-state and one-state, and I like the one that both parties like.”
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Even in far-off Australia, he’s managed to insult Prime Minister “Trumble”.

One of Australia’s most experienced security advisers Allan Behm, author of the recent book No, Minister and former head of the International Policy and Strategy Divisions of the Department of Defence, argues that for all his iconoclastic bluster and rants against received wisdom, Mr Trump is forcing a re-examination of the alliances which have underpinned the West for 70 years.

“The best thing for friends and allies is they have had to review their position, and that is a good thing,” Mr Behm told The New Daily. “There is an upside when you have to test your fundamental assumptions. If the Prime Minister is going to get a bollocking every time he talks to the President, it is about time we thought about the alliance.”

What has upset much of the diplomatic and bureaucratic class worldwide – Mr Trump’s brazen contempt for established practice – is forcing America itself, along with its allies, to redefine exactly what their best interests are.

Professor of International Politics at the University of NSW Tony Burke told The New Daily the hostility or disdain between the Australian and US leaders was disturbing, “but if it makes us think about having an independent foreign policy, that is of benefit”.

“There has been a tendency to align too closely with Washington’s position on everything. We need to determine our own interests.”

Professor of History at the American University in Washington, Max Friedman, said of Mr Trump’s diplomatic efforts: “The most beautiful and classiest foreign policy ever”, before making it clear he was mimicking President Trump’s hyperbole.
The problem is we don’t know what Trump’s foreign policy is because he doesn’t seem to know.


“He has challenged convention without offering a coherent alternative. We don’t know if he values NATO or thinks it is obsolete. Is he recognising Taiwan or sticking with the One China policy? Does he support West Bank settlements or oppose them? He wants to obliterate ISIS, but is rattling sabres at Iran, the country doing the most to fight ISIS.”

Professor Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College in Canberra, told The New Daily Mr Trump’s regular tweeting was compelling officials to invent policy on the run, all to fit in with his tweets.The US President hosted Japan PM Shinzo Abe last week. Photo: Getty

“That is unprecedented, that the most powerful man in the world has this way of circumventing his own system and the very, very powerful national security bureaucracy.”

But despite Mr Trump’s spectacular ability to ignore all traditional diplomatic practice, experts are united in thinking, or hoping, that the institutional strength and heavyweight machinery of traditional American governance will ultimately have a tempering effect on him.

As Mr Behm puts it: “The greatest positive I can draw out of it, is while everyone is recalibrating, Trump is learning on the job, and learning how to walk backwards. He has walked backwards on China, I think he will walk backwards on Mexico, he is already walking backwards on Canada.

“It is like AFL umpires, they do best when they are running backwards, otherwise they get knocked over and killed. Governments around the world are reappraising, while Trump is learning the hard lessons of being President.”

New report shows the real face of Islamic State terror converts, The New Daily, 10 February, 2017.

http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/02/10/the-face-of-islamic-state/

New report shows the real face of Islamic State terror converts


The report found that Islamic State recruits often came from solid family backgrounds.
John Stapleton
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Solidly middle-class, better educated than average, likely to be in a stable relationship and either studying or employed: that’s the face of an Islamic State convert.

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute recently released a report titled The American Face of ISIS, which it commissioned in the hope of better understanding terror converts in Australia.

The larger number of converts in America charged with an Islamic State-related incident or travelling to the Middle East in order to fight with the terrorist group provided more statistical certainty than could be achieved using Australian data only. The report is to be followed with a study of the societal traits of Australians charged with terror-related incidents.

The evidence roundly contradicts Australian government messaging on Countering Violent Extremism which has painted converts to Islamic State as impoverished, lonely outsiders with little education and low job prospects.

Islamic State execution videos played a central role in radicalisation. Photo: Getty

The study examined 112 cases of individuals who perpetrated ISIS-related offences. The majority were US citizens.

The report found that Islamic State videos, well known for their high production values and cinematic qualities, played a central role in radicalisation and all offenders were likely to have watched execution videos, including the infamous burning alive of a Jordanian pilot.

The ultra-violence of the videos, including crucifixions, stonings, graphic beheadings and ritualised mass shootings, attracted recruits worldwide.

Walker Gunning, the executive director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats which conducted the research, told The New Daily those charged with terrorist activities looked much like average Americans, including frequently having spouses and families.

The research confirms the Australian experience: 18-year-old suicide bomber Jake Bilardi left behind a blog showing him to be thoughtful and highly intelligent; the 17-year-old son of a doctor was among an affluent group of teens arrested in 2015 for plotting a Mother’s Day massacre.
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“While it is common to claim that terrorists are societal outcasts, we didn’t find that to be the case,” Mr Gunning said. “This information is important because without knowing who is attracted to ISIS, the US or Australian governments cannot effectively craft counter-messages.

“Stopping online propaganda represents an unprecedented challenge for law enforcement. Whereas before, Al-Qaeda had to recruit members face to face, American ISIS supporters are self-radicalising through viewing videos in the privacy of their own homes, sometimes with small groups of friends or family.”

Jacinta Carroll, head of the Counter-Terrorism Policy Centre at ASPI, who contributed to the report, told The New Daily she expected the American findings would hold true for Australia.

“The appropriate targeting of Countering Violent Extremism programs is challenging for both the Australian government and those delivering programs, and a number of organisations are approaching this new data with great interest,” she said.Jake Bilardi is seated second from the left. Photo: Twitter

“Australian and American converts are often attracted by online propaganda, while association with other radicals remains an important part of the story.

“As in America, cases in Australia to date demonstrate a feeling of being associated with a larger cause, the establishment of a ‘so-called’ caliphate and establishing a particular, narrow, form of Islam.

Ms Carroll said blocking Islamic State propaganda was difficult.

“Rather than playing whack-a-mole with extremist videos, in the current environment we need to focus in particular on our own messaging … the terrible experience of Muslim societies have experienced living under ISIS, and the real and extremely positive benefits of liberal democracies, including human rights-based law and respect.”

Dr Clarke Jones, a terrorism expert at the Australian National University who has worked extensively with Muslim communities, told The New Dailythose involved in so-called plots such as the Christmas Day terror plot targeting Federation Square and St Paul’s Cathedral often came from strong family backgrounds.

“Without a doubt, many involved in these types of activities are remarkably normal,” he said. “They can be both lovely and misguided kids. It is a real shame they go and do stupid things.

“It is going to get worse, particularly with the current rise of the extreme right of politics. Whether we like it or not, we have to place greater effort on understanding and then addressing what is making these kids feel the way they do.Melbourne-born Neil Prakash was recruited by ISIS and dubbed Australia’s most wanted terrorist.

“Even with a good job, or a school, they are feeling they are not part of society because they are Muslim.

“Having a sense of belonging and connectedness is the key factor to countering violent extremism and crime in general.

“It’s getting to the point that many community groups won’t have a bar of government or police.

“Western governments play a part in the rise of the popularity of Islamic State because the more they whip up the terrorist threat, the more it increases the terrorist threat. The government really needs to reassess the dimensions of the threat and look for long-term solutions.”