Thursday, 25 February 2021

Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism, As Editor, A Sense of Place Masgzine, 25 February, 2021.

 

Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism

Extract: Angus Deaton and Anne Case

From Nobel Prize winning economist Angus Deaton and leading academic Anne Case comes a beautifully written, concise, accessible and groundbreaking study of the collapse of America’s working class and the profound political consequences that go with it.

There are many parallels to the situation in Australia, where the slow motion destruction of traditional working class cultures is causing rising levels of tension and dysfunction.

Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism tries to answer the question: Why are non-college-educated whites dying of drug overdoses, alcohol poisoning, and suicide at unprecedented rates?

Below is an extract from the Deaths of Despair, republished here with the kind permission of Princeton University.


The four-year college degree is increasingly dividing America, and the extraordinarily beneficial effects of the degree are a constant theme  running through the book.

The widening gap between those with and without a bachelor’s degree is not only in death but also in quality of life; those without a degree are seeing increases in their levels of pain, ill health, and serious mental distress, and declines in their ability to work  and to socialize. The gap is also widening in earnings, in family stability, and in community. 

A four-year degree has become the key marker of  social status, as if there were a requirement for nongraduates to wear a  circular scarlet badge bearing the letters BA crossed through by a diagonal red line. 

In the last half century, America (like Britain and other rich countries)  has built a meritocracy that we rightly see as a great achievement. But  there is a dark side that was long ago predicted by Michael Young, the  British economist and social scientist who invented the term in 1958 and  who saw meritocracy as leading to social calamity. 

Those who do not  pass the exams and graduate to the cosmopolitan elite do not get to live  in the fast-growing, high-tech, and flourishing cities and are assigned jobs threatened by globalization and by robots. 

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Image courtesy The American Prospect

The less educated are devalued or even disrespected, are encouraged  to think of themselves as losers, and may feel that the system is rigged against them.

In many towns and cities, the union hall was a center of social life. The good wages that once supported the blue-collar aristocracy have largely vanished, and manufacturing has been replaced by service  jobs—for example, in healthcare, in food preparation and service, in janitorial and cleaning services, and in maintenance and repair. 

Our story of deaths of despair; of pain; of addiction, alcoholism, and  suicide; of worse jobs with lower wages; of declining marriage; and of  declining religion is mostly a story of non-Hispanic white Americans without a four-year degree. 

From 1970 to 2000, black  mortality rates declined by more than those of whites, and they fell in the first fifteen years of the twenty-first century while those of working class whites were rising. 

We document the decline of white working class lives over the last half century. 

White non-Hispanics are 62 percent of the working-age population, so understanding their mortality is important in and of itself. The story of what happened to African Americans in the seventies and eighties has been extensively researched and debated, and we have nothing to add to that literature except to note that  there are some parallels with whites today. 

We describe the social and economic forces that have slowly made working-class lives so much more difficult. One line of argument focuses on a decline in values or on an increasingly dysfunctional culture within the white working class itself. Our story is  primarily about the external forces that have eaten away the foundations  that characterized working-class life as it was half a century ago. There  is strong factual evidence against the view that workers brought the calamity on themselves by losing interest in work. 

After correction for inflation, the median wages of American men have  been stagnant for half a century; for white men without a four-year degree, median earnings lost 13 percent of their purchasing power between 1979 and 2017. 

Over the same period, national income per head grew by  85 percent. 

Image courtesy Deadline

The prolonged decline in wages is one of the fundamental forces working against less educated Americans. But a simple link to despair from falling material living standards cannot by itself account for what has happened. 

Deterioration in job quality, and detachment from the labor force, bring miseries over and above the loss of earnings. 

Many of the jobs that have come with the lower wages do not bring  the sense of pride that can come with being part of a successful enterprise, even in a low-ranked position. 

Cleaners, janitors, drivers, and customer service representatives “belonged” when they were directly employed by a large company, but they do not “belong” when the large company outsources to a business-service firm that offers low wages and little prospect of promotion. 

Even when workers are doing the same jobs that they did before they were outsourced, they are no longer part of a  marquee corporation. 

Men without prospects do not make good marriage partners. Marriage rates among less educated whites fell, and more people lost out on the  benefits of marriage, of seeing their children grow, and of knowing their  grandchildren. 

Poorer prospects make it harder  for people to build the life that their parents had, to own a home, or to  save to send kids to college. The lack of well-paying jobs threatens communities and the services they provide, such as schools, parks, and  libraries. 

Jobs are not just the source of money; they are the basis for the rituals, customs, and routines of working-class life. 

Destroy work and, in the  end, working-class life cannot survive. It is the loss of meaning, of dignity, of pride, and of self-respect that comes with the loss of marriage and  of community that brings on despair, not just or even primarily the loss  of money. 

Globalization and technological change are often held up as the main villains because they have reduced the value of uneducated labor, replacing it with cheaper, foreign labor or cheaper machines. Yet other rich countries, in Europe and elsewhere, face globalization and technological change but have not seen long-term stagnation of wages, nor an epidemic of deaths of despair. There is something going on in America that is dif­ferent, and that is particularly toxic for the working class.

The rising economic and political power of corporations, and the declining economic and political power of workers, allows corporations to gain at the expense of ordinary people, consumers, and particularly workers. 

The American healthcare system is a leading example of an institution that, under political protection, redistributes income upward to hospitals, physicians, device makers, and pharmaceutical companies while delivering among the worst health outcomes of any rich country.

Public purpose and the wellbeing of ordinary people are being subordinated to the private gain of the already well-off. None of this would be  possible without the acquiescence—and sometimes enthusiastic participation—of the politicians who are supposed to act in the interest of the  public.

Robin Hood was said to have robbed the rich to benefit the poor. What  is happening today in America is the reverse of Robin Hood, from poor to rich, what might be called a Sheriff of Nottingham redistribution. Political protection is being used for personal enrichment, by stealing from the poor on behalf of the rich.


Anne Case is the Alexander Stewart 1886 Professor of Economics and Public Affairs Emeritus at Princeton University. 

Angus Deaton, winner of the 2015 Nobel Prize in economics, is the Dwight D. Eisenhower Professor of Economics and International Affairs Emeritus at Princeton University and Presidential Professor of Economics at the University of Southern California.

Wednesday, 24 February 2021

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison's Method -- If You Don't Ask, You Can't Tell, As Editor, A Sense of Place Magazine, 25 February, 2021.

 

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s Method – If You Don’t Ask, You Can’t Tell

By Jack Waterford: Pearls and Irritations

Some prime ministers are more practised liars than others. Some can confuse, distract and prevaricate in such a way as to strangle the truth. Morrison, however, is a special case. He does not seem to recognise any obligation to account. He resists any scrutiny and while using words such as “transparency” almost everything he does is opaque. 

About 20 years ago, the phrase “plausible deniability” was in vogue, in part because John Howard denied any knowledge of the fact that boat children at sea had not been thrown overboard. A Senate inquiry dragged from a number of officials, including a then deputy secretary of the prime minister’s department, Jane Halton, admissions that they had come to learn that the children overboard story was a furphy.

They said they had told ministerial officers, including senior minders in the Prime Minister’s Office.  None of these, apparently, had thought this something important enough to bring to the prime minister’s attention, although he (and his defence minister) were continuing to make statements alleging that refugees had thrown their children overboard so as to force a rescue by the Australian Navy. 

The prime minister refused to give evidence or to  allow any member of his staff, past or present, to appear before the committee.

Scott Morrison: The Elephant In The Room: The Best of 2020

In 1983, Malcolm Fraser called an election. The Labor Opposition, under Bob Hawke, alleged that Budget projections had slipped badly, and that economy was in far worse shape than Fraser and his Treasurer, John Howard were pretending.  They were right.

John Stone, then Treasury Secretary, realised that the government would be likely to blame Treasury, rather than decisions of ministers, if the facts emerged before the election, or if, afterwards, the incoming government “discovered” a “black hole”. Adroitly he produced and sprung upon Howard  written advice telling him of the budget blow-out, and its likely dimensions.

Howard was in a bind. He had his own suspicions about a blow-out, but as long as he did not officially know, he could blandly deny it. Stone deprived him of an alibi. He did not want to lie. For the last week of the campaign, he had “reduced visibility” lest someone ambush him and ask him directly about the state of the budget.

Someone had told Howard the truth, in a way he could not deny. It was as if he then  decided that no one should ever be seen to tell him the truth again.

This was why he worked through the PMO, mostly with oral briefings. There are many records of what went into the PMO. But very few which recorded what the staff chose to tell him. He was, of course, very interested in detail, as Morrison is. But his fingerprints could rarely be found.

On occasion indeed, some minders took the fall by accepting personal responsibility for matters that had almost certainly engaged the attention of Howard.

Scott Morrison: The World’s Only Pentecostal Leader. The Best of 2020.

Successive governments have tried to follow the Howard system, if in ways adapted to the character of the prime minister, and, in several cases, such as Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott, the personality of their chiefs of staff. But deniability is the key. 

Some prime ministers are more practised liars than others. Others can confuse, mislead, distract and prevaricate in such a way that the truth is strangled. Morrison, however, is a special case. It’s because he does not seem to recognise any obligation to account. He uses words such as “transparency”, but almost everything he does is opaque. He resists any scrutiny — even more does he resist the imposition of systems by which a review reveals how and why money was spent.

With floods, and bushfires, and  vaccines, he blandly announces that he has allocated $X  billion to this relief project or that, but no actual fund is created, and it is almost impossible to track the spending that has occurred.

With his latest wheeze, the giving out of tens of billion to private enterprise with only minimal accounting requirements, and hardly any protections against fraud, Australia has got fairly close to arbitrary government.

Feeding the Chooks: Scott Morrison’s Manipulation of Mainstream Media. The Best of 2020.

Most often we cannot know if there is corruption — even though there are strong grounds to suspect it — because of the looseness of arrangements, the close personal involvement of ministers making decisions on frankly political grounds, and the open derision for financial conventions, many of which are constitutional.

The weakest High Court in many decades sits alongside regulators and watchdogs stripped of resources, with leaders sometimes seeming to be chosen for timorousness.

Many politicians dismiss concerns saying, in effect, that the public does not care.

I do not believe that, but I do think that we need better methods of informing the population about how they are being ripped off.

If there to be a clear sign that citizens care and that they will kick back, it might well be from a general dismay about the ill-treatment and abuse of a young staffer, first at the hands of an individual minder, and, later, by the institution of government itself.

A Year of Living With Discredited Mathematical Models, As Editor, A Sense of Place Magazine, 25 February, 2021.

 A Year of Living With Discredited Mathematical Models

By Professor Ramesh Thakur and David Redman

After a year’s experience of COVID-19 worldwide, the continuing hold of discredited mathematical models regarding lockdowns remain. As well, it is increasingly evident that medical specialists put in charge of public policy ignored existing pandemic preparedness plans, for better or worse.

On 18 February, SKY News UK trumpeted: “Lockdown is working! COVID-19 infection rate plummets in England.” Yet, as Figure 1 shows, voluntary social distancing in Sweden resulted in an earlier and faster decline of COVID-19 deaths per capita. Another interesting feature of the chart is how the curves are policy-invariant, mimicking one another regardless of policy interventions between the various countries. The virus infection, hospitalisation, and mortality curves seem to rise and fall by seasons independently of lockdowns.

Figure 1: The UK, EU, and Sweden

Source: Our World in Data.

A year ago, Western countries began adopting lockdown policies. To mark the anniversary, we would like to raise four analytical puzzles. The first is why abstract models have proven so seductive. On 13 February, the sober and responsible Economist magazine said “the pandemic threatened to take more than 150 million lives.” It gave no source or explanation for this Spanish Flu-like estimate. Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London (ICL) has a notorious track record of catastrophic predictions out by orders of magnitude on foot and mouth diseasemad cow diseasebird flu, and swine flu.

The ICL model of 16 March 2020 on COVID-19 and others copying its methodology too proved wildly inaccurate on both worst and best case estimates of COVID-19 deaths with respect to the UK, US, Sweden, and even Australia. As well, on 19 February, Canadian health officials couldn’t explain to a parliamentary health committee the basis for modelling-based forecasts from chief health officer Dr Theresa Tam that showed a rocket lift-off-like vertical trajectory (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Canada’s Rocket Model

Source: Toronto Sun, 20 February 2021.

The second is why countries have persisted with a policy whose many harms are far easier to demonstrate than benefits. If lockdowns worked, Sweden would have a higher death rate than the worst-hit European countries, and Florida would be far worse off than locked-down California, New York, and many more states. Data indicates the opposite.

On 11 February, Governor Ron DeSantis pointed out that since December, Florida ranked 28th among US states on cases, 38th on hospitalisations, and 42nd on deaths per capita. In an MSNBC interview on 17 February, President Joe Biden’s COVID-19 adviser Andy Slavitt visibly struggled to explain comparable outcomes for lockdown California and no-lockdown Florida, stating “that’s just a little beyond our explanation.”

Governments are prone to use the worst-performing countries as benchmarks to pat their own backs. Thus, Canada’s 570 COVID-19 deaths per million (DPM) compares very favourably to the 1,535 DPM in the US, but Canada is 80 percent above the world average of 317 DPM, and significantly worse than many Asian countries (Figure 3). Australia’s 35 DPM is spectacular in comparison to the tolls in Europe and the Americas, but in the mid-range of the Asia-Pacific statistics (Figure 4).

Figure 3: Canada in Global Perspective

Figure 4: Australia in Global and Regional Perspective

Despite a rudimentary public health infrastructure, multigenerational shared accommodation in congested conditions, and a vast migrant labour population returning from India, Nepal’s infection and mortality rates fell sharply, to the puzzlement of public health experts. 

India’s low COVID-19 mortality rate and falling infections are a similar puzzle. In December, Politico ran a headline demonstrating similar confusion, writing “Locked-down California runs out of reasons for surprising surge.”

Experts are similarly baffled by the failure of any post-holiday surge in Iowa despite dire predictions.

Against barely discernible benefits, the immediate and lasting harms of lockdowns to health, mental health, livelihoods, and social life are immense.

DAVID REDMAN AND RAMESH THAKUR

A peer-reviewed article in the European Journal of Clinical Investigation by researchers from Stanford University showed that net harms exceed net gains between highly and less restrictive interventions. In the UK, 3 million people missed cancer screenings and heart attacks, Accident and Emergency attendance dropped by 50 percent, and almost half of the 220,000 deaths were from non-COVID-19 causes, such as cancelled operations.

Covid toll versus 2020 lockdown damage – the stats don’t lie: THE Sars-CoV-2 infection and Covid-19 disease data are in for 2020, and they are disastrous for governments, policymakers and pseudo-scientific modellers across the world who promoted and implemented the lockdown measures, and for their cheerleaders in the mainstream media whose purpose was to generate fear.  
Together they were astonishingly successful in scaring their national populations to the bone, and the effect of that has been dire for the health and economic wellbeing of many nations. 

In Canada too, lockdowns have caused massive mental health, societal health, educational, economic, and even public health damage, including deaths from other severe diseases because people are either turned away from hospitals focussed on COVID-19, or are too frightened to go to the hospital.

Australia’s former foreign minister, Alexander Downer, described elimination as a “strategy that will never work,” articulating that its pursuit would be “the greatest danger for Australia” that will “cause the collapse of the economy, massive social dislocation, depression, educational setbacks, and the collapse of small businesses.”

No government should ever again have the power to shut down our lives, businesses, culture, and liberties.

Third, one explanation for the failure to control the pandemic could be that doctors have been delegated authority to make policy decisions that should have been tasked instead to emergency management experts, with input from public health specialists within their domain of expertise.

A pandemic is not a public health emergency, it’s a public emergency. It affects every aspect of life: the public sector, private sector, every citizen.

Every Canadian province has an Emergency Management Organization that scans across all sectors of the economy daily, looking for hazards that are going to impact them, making sure critical infrastructure is operating, and giving governments the tools needed to ensure the stability of their jurisdiction.

They have been pushed aside by chief health officers who are not trained in any of this. As non-medics would be barred from hospital operating theatres, why then do we expect good outcomes from health professionals with no expertise and experience in emergency management planning and execution of operational plans?

Fourth, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell was correct in his observation last April that lockdowns have no “historical scientific basis.”

Australia’s Lockdown Sceptics Go Mainstream

The scepticism towards harsh mitigation measures was stated by the WHO in 20062019, and again last December. National pandemic preparedness plans reflected the prevailing scientific and policy consensus. East Asian countries have had significantly lower COVID-19 death tolls and collateral damage to livelihoods and lifestyles because their pandemic plans were swiftly activated against COVID-19. By contrast, having reaffirmed in February 2020 its existing pandemic preparedness plan that had been drawn up in 2011, the UK abandoned any plan in March. Canada too had well-defined plans based on the hard lessons learned from previous pandemics. These were all discarded.

Going forward, the key question is what the acceptable level of mortality risk, relative to the damage to health, mental health, society, economy, and disadvantaged groups like migrants and the poor from lockdowns is.

Instead of fear-driven hysteria, governments should emphasise balance and proportionality and project calm, competence, and composure.

COVID-19 is now endemic and will keep circulating, returning (especially in winters), and mutating.

We cannot endlessly repeat lockdown cycles. The overall goal should be risk management, not risk avoidance, denial, or eradication. We must break the cycle of fear with a clear plan that people can understand and support.


This story was originally published by the Australian Institute of International Affairs and is republished here under a Creative Commons licence.

David Redman is a retired Canadian Army Lt. Col and a former head of Emergency Management Alberta.

Ramesh Thakur is a former UN Assistant Secretary-General and a Canadian as well as Australian citizen, is emeritus professor in the Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University.

Stories by Professor Thakur published in A Sense of Place Magazine can be found here.

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